Energy Dependence Trumps Euros In US-Russia Crisis

Energy independence was a primary goal of No. 45 for a number of obvious strategical economic & national security reasons, but it had tactical implications as well as seen in WSJ’s “Energy Dependence Ties Europe’s Hands in US-Russia Crisis”, reminding Euros still get 1/3 of its energy from Vladimir.

So, negotiators from the US, EU & Russia met Thursday in Geneva to try and defuse growing tensions tied to competing NATO’s & Russian military moves in Eastern Europe, especially as they related to Poland and Ukraine. And, early indications are little progress was made as were preliminary talks centering on Moscow’s deployment of over 100K troops along the border with Ukraine, “a major thoroughfare for gas consumed in Western Europe. While Russia denies it’s preparing to invade, it is demanding unprecedented “changes to Europe’s security architecture” aka Putin is trying to tell NATO (and, therefore, President Biden) how to defend themselves & their allies aka not at all.

As the WSJ noted, energy is playing a “central role … in the standoff” since Pres Biden gave the green light last year to put the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline into operation later this year. Pres Trump had blocked the deal in retaliation for perceived Russian aggression in Eastern Europe and Sen. Ted Cruz has introduced a bill requiring sanctions to be belatedly imposed on the gas pipeline. But, EU members are reportedly balking at ANY such sanctions being imposed as a deterrent to invasion because of fears the Russians will cut off their gas supply in retaliation. Harvard’s Meghan O’Sullivan says Russian Pres Putin has shown “the world – & Europeans in particular – that the old geopolitics of oil & gas is alive & well … so that … for the foreseeable future, Europe will remain [as] dependent [as ever] on Russian gas.” In other words, the Geneva negotiators are playing with a stacked deck & without so much as a Trump card, at least, until 2024.

Davd Soul