More Hurricanes Than Crime In NYC’s Future?

The WSJ cites a new study suggesting “Hurricanes May Become More Common in Northeastern US” as climates warm and, if right, will the nation keep pursuing too modest counter measures against increased flood threats or finally get serious about coastal land management?

When Hurricane Sandy hit NYC 10 years ago causing widespread flooding & blackouts, it was seen as a very rare event. But, new research suggests “as the planet warms, the storms will become more common in mid-latitude regions [i.e.] between 30 and 60 degrees latitude,” thereby bringing new risk to major cities within that band. “Places like New York, which are not in the deep tropics, have always had hurricanes, but only rarely,” said Joshua Studholme, a Yale University climate physicist and lead author of the study published in Nature Geoscience. “The climatology is changing & that is likely to be a shock.” The research was based on satellite observations of current weather as well as simulations of Earth’s past & projections of future weather, which of course, aren’t sure bets [see, e.g., early Covid pandemic model projections].

Still, with the stakes so high, some cities aren’t waiting for follow up studies. Last year, for instance, NYC Emergency Mgt updated the city’s coastal-storm plan & its hurricane evacuation zone rules. Boston is more proactively aggressive in “expanding efforts to prepare” for a stormier future by “revamping waterfront parks with berms and flood walls to better manage rising waters” as well as building a “new waterfront park designed to withstand catastrophic flooding.” But, frankly, all that sounds like a band aid or tip of an iceberg approach. Don’t they remember Sandy’s impact? Folks in New Orleans & environs sure still do after Hurricane Katrina caused over 1,800 fatalities & $125B in damage in 2005.

Davd Soul