Recession Probability Soars As 46 2bs Down

As Fed slammed on breaks & 46 dug deeper on spending sprees, WSJ says “Recession Probability Soars as Inflation Worsens” & economists’ fears now at a level “usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recession.”

First the NY Fed warned as much, but then economists surveyed by the WSJ “dramatically [also] raised the probability of recession, now putting it at 44% in the next 12 months.” The reason that hits home so hard is that that “44%” probability number compares to the 26% probability number recorded back in 2007, just before the 2007-2009 recession began; meanwhile, as recently as 60 days ago, only 28% of the economists surveyed predicted a recession was coming and just 18% thought so in January.

The reasons for what’s starting to look like a near-panic are starting to get too familiar: “Higher borrowing costs, a blistering pace of inflation, supply-chain problems & commodity-price shocks stemming from the war in Ukraine. Mostly, however, they see dimming chances that a steeper path of [interest] rate increases by the Fed can cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment & an economic downturn.” How about Mr. Biden’s refusal to stop printing money under the delusion it will “bring inflation down”?

Davd Soul